Num. 110 When the market reaches its ceiling… and its floor

There are moments when the data seems contradictory. But, in reality, it is not. It simply reflects the complexity of the reality we are experiencing in the housing market.

 

From our point of view, in 2026 the property sales market has reached an unusual situation: we have hit both the ceiling and the floor at the same time. It may sound paradoxical, but it accurately describes the complexity we mentioned earlier.

 

For years, the sales market has maintained a sustained growth trend. In an environment where demand has grown much faster than supply, both transactions and prices have increased. None of this is particularly surprising. We have known the reasons for some time: population growth, more households, Barcelona and its surrounding area’s strong appeal, the non-existent rental market, and clearly insufficient housing production.

 

In these first months of 2026, it seems that we have reached the floor in terms of supply. It is difficult to find second-hand homes. It is difficult to find new-build homes. And the few properties that come onto the market in good condition are quickly absorbed. The pressure remains enormous.

 

At the same time, however, it also seems that we have started to reach a ceiling in terms of prices. It may seem contradictory. If there is so little supply, why can prices not continue to rise indefinitely? The answer is simple: most potential buyers can no longer afford them.

 

More than 70% of buyers in the city of Barcelona, and more than 80% in the surrounding area, are still local buyers. And local buyers’ salaries have a limit. If we add financing that is somewhat more expensive than a few years ago and mortgage affordability that is already under considerable pressure, it is easy to understand that the market is beginning to hit an economic ceiling.

 

This does not mean that there are no buyers with significantly greater purchasing power. They exist, and in certain areas they play a relevant role. But, today, they still represent a relatively small part of the market. The reality continues to be shaped above all by the financial possibilities of the families who live and work here.

 

Meanwhile, market pressure is spreading outwards. Like an oil spill, demand is moving beyond Barcelona in search of alternatives. But this expansion also has a limit: the poor transport infrastructure we have (outdated, slow and unreliable). The amount of time we are willing to spend commuting is neither infinite nor unpredictable.

 

For months, we have been explaining that the rental market has reached its own limits. We are now beginning to see that the sales market is also approaching its limits. Housing is ultimately a reflection of the lack of a coherent model for the country at every level.

 

And, like any other major collective challenge, it will only be resolved by first finding a broadly agreed model for the country, and then dedicating the resources needed to achieve it (people, time, technical expertise and, above all, a great deal of money).

 

And it is precisely on this last point that we need to emphasise that words matter. Probably the characteristic that best defines human beings is language. Our ability to name things is what allows us to understand reality, discuss it and build shared solutions.

 

And returning to housing, we are beginning to use words with worrying carelessness, in a way that is entirely irresponsible and, probably, deliberate in certain sectors.

 

It seems that every investment is speculation. That every property market player is somehow suspect. That every form of return is morally questionable.

 

But if we want to solve the housing problem, we will need an amount of investment vastly greater than what the public administration can provide on its own.

 

We will need public investment, yes. But we will also need private investment. Ultimately, we will need everyone who is willing to build more housing. Systematically confusing investment with speculation does not solve the problem. It simply drives away some of those who will necessarily have to be part of the solution.

 

Albert Camus wrote a sentence that remains fully relevant today:

 

“To name things badly is to add to the world’s misery.” (“Mal nommer un objet, c’est ajouter au malheur de ce monde”).

 

We need to be careful with language because words, just like public policies, also shape reality.

Guifré Homedes | Director General Amat

 

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The Diary of change is an initiative by Amat that emerged in response to the financial crisis that erupted in the summer of 2008 and had a major impact on the real estate market. In that moment of uncertainty, Amat felt the need and conviction to inform its clients, collaborators, and contacts about the events and changes taking place and affecting everyone.