{"id":40347,"date":"2025-07-07T14:01:40","date_gmt":"2025-07-07T14:01:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amatimmobiliaris.com\/w\/?p=40347"},"modified":"2025-07-07T14:03:50","modified_gmt":"2025-07-07T14:03:50","slug":"different-interpretations-of-the-same-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amatimmobiliaris.com\/w\/en\/2025\/07\/different-interpretations-of-the-same-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Different Interpretations of the Same Data &#8211; Diary of Change num.106"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\">In issue 106 of the Diari del Canvi, we talk about how the same data can generate completely opposite interpretations depending on who analyzes it and with what objective.<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>We already have the <strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">official data<\/span><\/strong> after a year of rental market <strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">regulation<\/span><\/strong>, and beyond the numbers themselves, it\u2019s interesting how conclusions vary depending on who presents them.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is clear, then, that we are not asking the same questions or going into the same depth of analysis. <strong><span style=\"color: #da291c;\">Remaining superficial may give the appearance of an effective policy in the short term, but the effect may be completely opposite in the medium or long term.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In this sense, <strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">the objective of each policy should be clearly explained, as it may be more beneficial for those already in the rental market (favoring permanence), and not as, or not at all, beneficial for those trying to access a rental home (accessibility).<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>When data is commented on, the success of this policy is based on two key variables.<br \/>\nFirst, logically, the <strong><span style=\"color: #da291c;\">evolution of prices in regulated areas,<\/span><\/strong> and second, a <strong><span style=\"color: #da291c;\">positive balance of supply, stating that the Incas\u00f2l security deposit balance has been positive<\/span><\/strong>. Up to this point, the data is positive and the policy works\u2014but does it really?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ve often talked about <strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">accessibility,<\/span><\/strong> composed of two variables: <strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">price and available supply<\/span><\/strong>. Prices are regulated and trending downward, but the available supply? It keeps decreasing quarter after quarter. And today, this is the most limiting factor for accessibility: the lack of available housing.<br \/>\nFor example, in Barcelona city, supply dropped by 14.9% from 2023 to 2024 and has continued to fall in the first quarter of 2025.<br \/>\nSo how can it be said that regulation does not affect supply? Because <strong><span style=\"color: #da291c;\">supply is discussed based on two different data points: on one hand, new contracts signed, and on the other, the deposit balance<\/span><\/strong>.<br \/>\nAccessibility is determined by new contracts signed, which are directly related to available housing being marketed. In contrast, the deposit balance reflects new contracts minus expired ones.<\/p>\n<p>To explain this, we can use a demographic analogy. New contracts are like births, and ended contracts are like deaths. We believe it\u2019s only a matter of time before the deposit balance turns negative: if there are fewer births (falling number of new contracts), no immigration (new investors entering the rental market), we are only sustained because life expectancy increases (average contract duration increases).<\/p>\n<p>Even if the deposit balance remains positive, key questions are:<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Who is benefiting from these new regulated contracts?<\/span><\/strong> As always, there\u2019s a cascade effect, and <strong><span style=\"color: #da291c;\">those with stronger economic profiles and lower perceived risk are the ones accessing the few available rental homes.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">And how do they access the few homes that hit the market?<\/span><\/strong> Through <strong><span style=\"color: #da291c;\">increasingly limited and less public channels. In many cases, it&#8217;s about personal connections.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>So, if we stay at the surface level, everything seems fine and policies appear to work. But if we dig a bit deeper, things are not looking good\u2014possibly worsening (at least in terms of accessibility). <strong><span style=\"color: #da291c;\">With proper analysis, small adjustments to current policies could result in a much better outcome than what we have today.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>To conclude, this reflection is just as valid for the 30% rule, the recent ITP changes, the upcoming seasonal rental reforms, and the long list of housing policies that keep being introduced without a deep evaluation of their real consequences.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"color: #da291c;\"><strong><i>Guifr\u00e9 Homedes | Managing Director<\/i><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Did you enjoy this reflection? <b>Share it!<\/b><\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.amatimmobiliaris.com%2Fw%2Fca%2F2024%2F01%2F11un-repas-rapid-del-2023-diari-del-canvi-no101%2F\" class=\"broken_link\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-19024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.amatimmobiliaris.com\/w\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/fb.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"12\" height=\"24\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/sharing\/share-offsite\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.amatimmobiliaris.com%2Fw%2Fca%2F2024%2F01%2F11un-repas-rapid-del-2023-diari-del-canvi-no101%2F\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-19028\" src=\"https:\/\/www.amatimmobiliaris.com\/w\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/linkedin.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"25\" \/><\/a><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Read more reflections in the <a href=\"https:\/\/issuu.com\/amatimmobiliaris\/docs\/diari_del_canvi\">\u201cDiari del Canvi\u201d<\/a><\/strong><\/h5>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>The Diari del Canvi is an initiative by Amat that emerged in response to the financial crisis that erupted in the summer of 2008 and had a major impact on the real estate market. In that moment of uncertainty, Amat felt the need and conviction to inform its clients, collaborators, and contacts about the events and changes taking place and affecting everyone.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In issue 106 of the Diari del Canvi, we talk about how the same data can generate completely opposite interpretations depending on who analyzes it and with what objective. &nbsp; We already have the official data after a year of rental market regulation, and beyond the numbers themselves, it\u2019s interesting how conclusions vary depending on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":40357,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1148,781],"tags":[1898,1882],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Different Interpretations of the Same Data - Diary of Change num.106 | Amat Immobiliaris<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In issue 106 of Diario de Cambio, we talk about Different Interpretations of the Same Data\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amatimmobiliaris.com\/Different-Interpretations-of-the-Same-Data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Different Interpretations of the Same Data - Diary of Change num.106 | Amat Immobiliaris\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In issue 106 of Diario de Cambio, we talk about Different Interpretations of the Same Data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.amatimmobiliaris.com\/Different-Interpretations-of-the-Same-Data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Amat Immobiliaris\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/amatimmobiliaris\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-07-07T14:01:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-07-07T14:03:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.amatimmobiliaris.com\/w\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/plantilla-story-blog-diari-canvi.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1080\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marina Payan\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@amat_cat\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@amat_cat\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marina Payan\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.amatimmobiliaris.com\/Different-Interpretations-of-the-Same-Data#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.amatimmobiliaris.com\/w\/en\/2025\/07\/different-interpretations-of-the-same-data\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Marina Payan\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.amatimmobiliaris.com\/w\/#\/schema\/person\/d62b55fd12a2bc4550743759f52bdc8f\"},\"headline\":\"Different Interpretations of the Same Data &#8211; 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